Estimating Daily Order Receipts from Weight of Mail

Abstract

In the operations of a Order Plant it is highly desirable to know as early as possible each day, what the volume of that day's orders will be. This must not only be determined promptly but also with considerable accuracy. Sears, Roebuck and Co. do this by weighing the early morning mail, and by 8:30 each morning they have predicted the number of orders that will be received that day and made the necessary plans for their handling. All large Order Companies use very similar operating procedures. Orders are handled in a 10-15 or 20 minute cycle, and the volume handled in that cycle can range from 1000 to 4000 (depending upon the size of the plant and the season of the year) . This means that from 1000 to 4000 orders are being processed, assembled, packed and shipped through the same operational channels and personnel during each cycle of approximately 15 minutes. Since any overlapping of these cycles means chaos, it is understandable that early and accurate order estimates are essentional for the daily planning. Sears, Roebuck and Co., of course, prepares long range estimates covering each of the Spring-Summer and Fall-Winter Seasons. These estimates are reviewed and revised, if necessary, at the beginning of each of Sear's thirteen yearly periods. But the daily estimates are the final word and on these Sears base their daily operating plans. No one is quite sure just when the weighing of the mail became the basis for estimating. Certainly it started a long time ago and over the period of many years Sears has accumulated a vast store of knowledge as to how many orders can be expected from each pound of mail -and as a matter of fact, they also know what else that pound of mail will contain. How many requests for their current catalog -how many payments on accounts-how many complaints from customers-and so on. The Sears Philadelphia Plant makes the first pick-up of mail from the postoffice at 4:30 a.m. and unless trains have been delayed by unusual conditions, this will be the heaviest single pick-up of mail for the day. Five additional mail pick-ups will be made that day ending at 3:00 p.m. All mail receipts are carefully weighed and recorded but only those mails received prior to 8:00 a.m. are used for estimating the day's receipts. When the mail reaches the Order Plant it is trucked to the Opening Division where it is weighed in the mail sacks and the gross weight recorded. Next, the mail sacks are emptied in specially designed compartments and small first-class mail packages, and slugs are sorted out. Slugs is the postal name for the large, bulky business envelopes containing reports, statistical data, and business records received by the Order Plant daily from all of it's Retail Stores and Sales Offices. The weight of the packages, slugs, and mail sacks is now determined and subtracted from the gross weight to secure the actual net weight of customer mail. Each mail sack carries a Sack Tag that shows the origin of the mail it contains. If the mail from any particular train or area is missing it is easily detected and the poundage of mail is adjusted for comparative purposes. Based on their past experience, the poundage of mail received by 8:00 a.m. tells Sears the total pounds of mail that they will receive that day. There is no complicated formula involved in translating pounds of mail into number of orders. Past records show that, during normal times, each pound of mail will produce from 30 to 37 cash orders, 2 time payment orders, and 3 C.O.D. orders. Since the average pound of mail contains 60 envelopes, the remainder will be payments on accounts, catalog requests, and miscellaneous correspondence. Monday's mail contains fewer orders per pound than any other day of the week and Tuesday's mail contains the most. Sears use the term of when referring to the number of orders per pound; thus Monday is a low quality day and Tuesday is a high quality day. During a normal week the Mail Quality will run as follows: MVonday 30 Cash Orders Per Pound of Tuesday -37 Cash Orders Per Pound of Wednesday -35 Cash Orders Per Pound of Thusrday 32 Cash Orders Per Pound of Friday 31 Cash Orders Per Pound of Immediately following the mailing of a new catalog