Estimating Daily Global Solar Radiation with No Meteorological Data in Poland

Michał Wasilewicz,Dorota Mitrowska,Małgorzata Kleniewska

doi:10.3390/app10030778

Abstract

The aim of the study was to calibrate coefficients and evaluate performance of simple, day-of-the-year, global solar radiation (H) models nominated from the literature. Day-of-the-year models enable estimation of global solar radiation when no meteorological data is available. The study used 16-year-long data series of daily H, taken at 15 actinometric stations located in various parts of Poland. The goodness-of-fit of the models to the actual long-term monthly average daily global solar radiation data expressed by determination coefficient (R2) ranges from 0.94 to 0.97. Depending on statistical indicators analysis (root mean square error—RMSE, mean absolute bias error—MABE, mean average percentage error—MAPE) the best model was selected. The averaged values of H computed by the recommended model deviate from those measured by 4.16% to 8.71%. Locally calibrated, day-of-the-year model provides satisfactory accuracy and—where meteorological data is unavailable—can be used to estimate mean monthly daily global solar radiation in Poland and similar climate conditions.

Highlights

IntroductionAs well as measurements and modeling techniques of solar radiation, a primary factor affecting the Earth’s climate, are subjects of interest of many studies.in Poland, possibly mainly due to the limited data accessibility, solar radiation studies are rare and based on individual data series [1,2,3,4,5]
Spatial and temporal variability, as well as measurements and modeling techniques of solar radiation, a primary factor affecting the Earth’s climate, are subjects of interest of many studies.in Poland, possibly mainly due to the limited data accessibility, solar radiation studies are rare and based on individual data series [1,2,3,4,5]
There are different types of models based on meteorological elements, including those which use sunshine duration as an input variable, i.e., the classic Angström formula [10,11] and its modified versions [12,13,14]; those based on the relationship between solar radiation and air temperature [15,16,17]; and models utilizing cloudiness [18,19], relative air humidity [20], or precipitation [21]

Summary

Introduction

As well as measurements and modeling techniques of solar radiation, a primary factor affecting the Earth’s climate, are subjects of interest of many studies.in Poland, possibly mainly due to the limited data accessibility, solar radiation studies are rare and based on individual data series [1,2,3,4,5]. Analysis of relationships between solar radiation and meteorological elements for more than one observation series has been conducted, for example, by [7,8,9] and concerned the calibration of coefficients for an Angström-type formula, describing linear correlation between sunshine duration and global solar radiation. There are different types of models based on meteorological elements, including those which use sunshine duration as an input variable, i.e., the classic Angström formula [10,11] and its modified versions [12,13,14]; those based on the relationship between solar radiation and air temperature [15,16,17]; and models utilizing cloudiness [18,19], relative air humidity [20], or precipitation [21]

Objectives

Methods

Results

Conclusion