Abstract
BackgroundIn Japan, a part of confirmed patients’ samples have been screened for the variant of concern (VOC), including the variant alpha with N501Y mutation. The present study aimed to estimate the actual number of cases with variant alpha and reconstruct the epidemiological dynamics.MethodsThe number of cases with variant alpha out of all PCR confirmed cases was estimated, employing a hypergeometric distribution. An exponential growth model was fitted to the growth data of variant alpha cases over fourteen weeks in Tokyo.ResultsThe weekly incidence with variant alpha from 18–24 January 2021 was estimated at 4.2 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.7, 44.0) cases. The expected incidence in early May ranged from 420–1120 cases per week, and the reproduction number of variant alpha was on the order of 1.5 even under the restriction of contact from January-March, 2021, Tokyo.ConclusionsThe variant alpha was predicted to swiftly dominate COVID-19 cases in Tokyo, and this has actually occurred by May 2021. Devising the proposed method, any country or location can interpret the virological sampling data.
Highlights
In Japan, a part of confirmed patients’ samples have been screened for the variant of concern (VOC), including the variant alpha with N501Y mutation
The widespread epidemiology of COVID-19 is featured by its substantial transmissibility with the estimated basic
This study aimed to estimate the actual number of PCR positive cases with variant alpha and reconstruct the epidemiological dynamics so that insights into the current and future prospects can be gained
Summary
In Japan, a part of confirmed patients’ samples have been screened for the variant of concern (VOC), including the variant alpha with N501Y mutation. Murayama et al Theor Biol Med Model (2021) 18:13 While such interventions have led the paramount impact on social and economic activities in many countries, the variant of concern (VOC) alpha, or the variant that is phylogenetically referred to as B.1.1.7 attracted a global attention [7, 8], rapidly replacing other variants due to 50–70% greater transmissibility and featured by about 30% greater risk of death than others [9,10,11,12]. This study aimed to estimate the actual number of PCR positive cases with variant alpha and reconstruct the epidemiological dynamics so that insights into the current and future prospects can be gained
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