Estimating Community Incidence ofSalmonella, Campylobacter, and Shiga Toxin–producingEscherichia coliInfections, Australia

Gillian Hall,Keflemariam Yohannes,Jane Raupach,Niels Becker,Martyn Kirk

doi:10.3201/eid1410.071042

Gillian Hall, Keflemariam Yohannes + Show 3 more

Open Access

https://doi.org/10.3201/eid1410.071042

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Abstract

To estimate multipliers linking surveillance of salmonellosis, campylobacteriosis, and Shiga toxin-producing Escherichia coli (STEC) infections to community incidence, we used data from a gastroenteritis survey and other sources. Multipliers for severe (bloody stool/long duration) and milder cases were estimated from the component probabilities of doctor visit, stool test, sensitivity of laboratory test, and reporting to surveillance system. Pathogens were classified by the same severity criteria and appropriate multipliers applied. Precision of estimates was quantified by using simulation techniques to construct 95% credible intervals (CrIs). The multiplier for salmonellosis was estimated at 7 (95% CrI 4-16), for campylobacteriosis at 10 (95% CrI 7-22), and for STEC at 8 (95% CrI 3-75). Australian annual community incidence rates per 100,000 population were estimated as 262 (95% CrI 150-624), 1,184 (95% CrI 756-2,670), and 23 (95% CrI 13-54), respectively. Estimation of multipliers allows assessment of the true effects of these diseases and better understanding of public health surveillance.

Highlights

The primary aims of laboratory-based surveillance of Salmonella, Campylobacter, and Shiga toxin–producing Escherichia coli (STEC) infections in industrialized countries are to detect outbreaks and to monitor changes in incidence over time
The specific objective of this study was to estimate the multipliers to apply to Salmonella, Campylobacter, and STEC infections reported to national surveillance and to estimate the community incidence of these conditions in Australia
Fever was statistically significantly associated with visiting a doctor

Summary

Introduction

The primary aims of laboratory-based surveillance of Salmonella, Campylobacter, and Shiga toxin–producing Escherichia coli (STEC) infections in industrialized countries are to detect outbreaks and to monitor changes in incidence over time. Studies that have estimated community incidence have used various methods These include: capture-recapture [1], Delphi or expert consensus [2], outbreak reports [3,4], community-based cohort studies of diarrheal disease [5], and estimation of multipliers of surveillance data by using additional data [6]. The specific objective of this study was to estimate the multipliers to apply to Salmonella, Campylobacter, and STEC infections reported to national surveillance and to estimate the community incidence of these conditions in Australia

Objectives

Results

Conclusion