Abstract
BackgroundViruses transmitted by Aedes mosquitoes have greatly expanded their geographic range in recent decades. They are considered emerging public health threats throughout the world, including Europe. Therefore, public health authorities must be prepared by quantifying the potential magnitude of virus transmission and the effectiveness of interventions.MethodologyWe developed a mathematical model with a vector-host structure for chikungunya virus transmission and estimated model parameters from epidemiological data of the two main autochthonous chikungunya virus transmission events that occurred in Southern France, in Montpellier (2014) and in Le Cannet-des-Maures (2017). We then performed simulations of the model using these estimates to forecast the magnitude of the foci of transmission as a function of the response delay and the moment of virus introduction.ConclusionsThe results of the different simulations underline the relative importance of each variable and can be useful to stakeholders when designing context-based intervention strategies. The findings emphasize the importance of, and advocate for early detection of imported cases and timely biological confirmation of autochthonous cases to ensure timely vector control measures, supporting the implementation and the maintenance of sustainable surveillance systems.
Highlights
Worldwide, arboviral diseases such as dengue, Zika and chikungunya constitute a major proportion of infectious diseases emergence [1]
We developed a mathematical model with a vector-host structure for chikungunya virus transmission and estimated model parameters from epidemiological data of the two main autochthonous chikungunya virus transmission events that occurred in Southern France, in Montpellier (2014) and in Le Cannet-des-Maures (2017)
The results of the different simulations underline the relative importance of each variable and can be useful to stakeholders when designing context-based intervention strategies
Summary
Arboviral diseases such as dengue, Zika and chikungunya constitute a major proportion of infectious diseases emergence [1] In recent decades, their incidence has increased dramatically, and they have substantially extended their geographic range. Transmission events of chikungunya virus (CHIKV) in France results in outbreaks with the greatest number of cases. This can be partially explained by the fact that Ae. Albopictus is considered as an efficient vector of CHIKV, especially East-Central-South African (ECSA) genotypes [5], whereas the species is not considered currently as a primary vector of dengue [6]. Viruses transmitted by Aedes mosquitoes have greatly expanded their geographic range in recent decades They are considered emerging public health threats throughout the world, including Europe. Public health authorities must be prepared by quantifying the potential magnitude of virus transmission and the effectiveness of interventions
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