Estimating Changes in Habitat Quality through Land-Use Predictions: Case Study of Roe Deer (Capreolus pygargus tianschanicus) in Jeju Island

Dong-Jin Lee,Seong Woo Jeon

doi:10.3390/su122310123

Abstract

This study predicts future land-use changes and the resulting changes in habitat quality, suggesting a method for establishing land-use management to ensure sustainable wildlife habitats. The conservation effects were verified in terms of wild animal habitat quality according to the designation of protected areas. Land-use change until 2050 was predicted using the Dyna-Conversion of Land Use Change and its effects (Dyna-CLUE) model for Jeju Island, Korea, and the change in the quality of roe deer habitats was predicted using the Integrated Valuation and Environmental Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) model. Results indicate that, compared to 2030, urbanized area increased by 42.55 km2, farmland decreased by 81.36 km2, and natural area increased by 38.82 km2 by 2050. The average habitat quality on Jeju Island was predicted to decrease from 0.306 in 2030 to 0.303 in 2050. The average habitat quality ranged from 0.477 in 2030 to 0.476 in 2050 in protected areas and 0.281 in 2030 to 0.278 in 2050 outside protected areas. Habitat quality in protected areas was relatively high, and its reduction was limited. Areas with lower habitat quality need approaches such as expanding greenery and improving its quality. By establishing appropriate land-use plans by predicting habitat quality, wildlife habitats can be better maintained and protected, which is a primary goal of green infrastructure.

Highlights

Biodiversity is affected by habitat changes, invasive species, climate change, overuse of natural resources, disease spread, nutrient salinity loads, and contamination, among which habitat changes are considered the greatest threats to biodiversity [1]
In 2050, as compared to 2010, urbanized areas increased by 79.5%, farmland areas decreased by 27.3%, and natural areas increased by 1.6%
This study proposed a method for establishing the direction of land-use management to ensure sustainable wildlife inhabitation in the future

Summary

Introduction

Biodiversity is affected by habitat changes, invasive species, climate change, overuse of natural resources, disease spread, nutrient salinity loads, and contamination, among which habitat changes are considered the greatest threats to biodiversity [1]. Jeju Island, which is located in Korea, features high biodiversity, with 7800 species of animals and plants and a natural environment represented by the Halla Mountains, grasslands, the Gotjawal forest, the Oreum volcano, and caves [2]. A total of 4764 land animal species (7 amphibians, 14 reptiles, 4316 insects, 384 birds, and 43 mammals), 155 families, 698 genera, 1841 native plant species, 87 endemic plant species, and endangered wildlife exist in these areas. The roe deer (Capreolus pygargus tianschanicus) is the only mammal living on Jeju Island; it was endangered in the 1980s due to poaching activities [4]. If the urbanization of Jeju Island continues, the roe deer habitats will be reduced and habitat conditions will further deteriorate owing to the island’s spatial restrictions, which may lead to the extinction of roe deer

Objectives

Methods

Results

Discussion

Conclusion