Estimating changes in free-living energy intake and its confidence interval

Abstract

Free-living energy intake in humans is notoriously difficult to measure but is required to properly assess outpatient weight-control interventions. Our objective was to develop a simple methodology that uses longitudinal body weight measurements to estimate changes in energy intake and its 95% CI in individual subjects. We showed how an energy balance equation with 2 parameters can be derived from any mathematical model of human metabolism. We solved the energy balance equation for changes in free-living energy intake as a function of body weight and its rate of change. We tested the predicted changes in energy intake by using weight-loss data from controlled inpatient feeding studies as well as simulated free-living data from a group of "virtual study subjects" that included realistic fluctuations in body water and day-to-day variations in energy intake. Our method accurately predicted individual energy intake changes with the use of weight-loss data from controlled inpatient feeding experiments. By applying the method to our simulated free-living virtual study subjects, we showed that daily weight measurements over periods >28 d were required to obtain accurate estimates of energy intake change with a 95% CI of <300 kcal/d. These estimates were relatively insensitive to initial body composition or physical activity level. Frequent measurements of body weight over extended time periods are required to precisely estimate changes in energy intake in free-living individuals. Such measurements are feasible, relatively inexpensive, and can be used to estimate diet adherence during clinical weight-management programs.