Estimating carbon stocks in Korean forests between 2010 and 2110: a prediction based on forest volume–age relationships

Abstract

This study was focused on attempting to estimate the potential change in forest carbon stocks between 2010 and 2110 in South Korea, using forest cover maps and National Forest Inventory (NFI) data. Allometric functions (logistic regression models) of volume–age relationships were developed to estimate carbon stock change during the next 100 years for Pinus densiflora, P. koraiensis, P. rigida, Larix kaempferi and Quercus spp. As a result, we found that the average forest volume would increase from 126.89 m3/ha to 246.61 m3/ha and the average carbon stocks would increase from 50.51 Mg C/ha to 99.76 Mg C/ha during the next 100 years. The carbon stocks would increase by approximately 0.5 Mg C/(ha·yr), a high value if other northern countries’ (Canada, Russia, China, etc.) rates of increase are considered, as these are −0.10 to 0.28 Mg C/(ha·yr) as determined in a previous study. This can probably be attributed to the fact that the change in carbon stocks was estimated without the consideration of mortality, thinning, and tree species’ change in this study, which is may lead to somewhat overestimation of carbon sequestration. However, this study is meaningful, as the estimated carbon stocks were based on the data from NFI and forest cover maps.