Abstract
The direct rebound effect for private car transport was estimated by following a large sample of Swedish households (28,876) that acquired a new car in 2009. For some households, this resulted in an improvement in fuel efficiency, whereas others acquired a less or similarly fuel efficient car. The households’ travel distances were measured and analysed for a period of 3 years before and 3 years after the car was replaced. This approach differs from previous econometric analyses in which fleet-average changes in distance travelled were studied, often using fluctuations in fuel cost as a proxy for changes in fuel efficiency. No significant bivariate relationship was found between changes in fuel efficiency and annual distance travelled but a multivariate analysis that also included changes in income, number of cars in the household, car weight and car power, resulted in a significant rebound effect of 24 %. Households who bought a car that was labelled ‘green’ did not exhibit any rebound effect, while households who bought a ‘normal’ car displayed a rebound effect of 32 %. This could indicate that households that buy a car with improved fuel efficiency for environmental reasons also avoid the economically induced rebound effect. The analysis did not indicate any significant differences in the rebound effect between different socio-demographic groups.
Highlights
Improving energy efficiency has often been identified as a key strategy for climate change mitigation (Pacala and Socolow 2004; OECD/IEA 2017)
Rebound effect would be seen as an increase in distance travelled for households who have changed to more fuel efficient cars, while the opposite would be true for households who have shifted to less fuel efficient cars
Our approach of following the actual changes in fuel efficiency and travel distances for individual households over time differs from previous econometric approaches for analysing the rebound effects of personal automotive transport
Summary
Improving energy efficiency has often been identified as a key strategy for climate change mitigation (Pacala and Socolow 2004; OECD/IEA 2017). A household buying a fuel efficient car will face lower marginal costs per kilometre and could be expected to drive longer distances. This mechanism is referred to as the direct rebound effect. Energy efficiency improvements may cause indirect rebound effects, since money saved by reducing fuel consumption can be used to increase expenditure on other products and services. A third mechanism occurs at the economy-wide level, where a reduction in energy demand may result in lower prices for both energy and products with energy inputs, which in turn causes increasing energy demand through consumption by other households and companies (Greening et al 2000, Sorrell and Dimitropoulos 2008).
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