Estimating calcium weathering rates and future lake calcium concentrations in the Muskoka–Haliburton region of Ontario

Abstract

Calcium (Ca) concentrations in surface waters on the Precambrian Shield are determined primarily by the Ca weathering rate in soil, which requires extensive soil data that generally do not exist. From a water chemistry database comprising approximately 550 lakes in south-central Ontario, Canada, 130 lakes were selected with low Ca concentrations (Ca < 75 µmol·L–1). Calcium weathering is primarily dominated by silicate minerals such as plagioclase and hornblende, allowing the use of Ca–sodium (Na) ratios in lake water to estimate Ca weathering rates. Soil profile data at seven sites indicated that the Ca–Na ratio from mineral weathering is 0.86; correspondingly, Ca weathering rates in lakes ranged from 0.04 to 0.24 kmol·ha–1·year–1 (median of 0.09 kmol·ha–1·year–1). This compares with a range of 0.06–0.24 kmol·ha–1·year–1 (median of 0.14 kmol·ha–1·year–1) obtained using the steady-state water chemistry model. Using these methods to bound potential weathering rates, Ca concentrations in individual lakes at steady state are predicted to decline by 10%–40% compared with current values. Dynamic soil hydrochemical model predictions indicate that Ca concentrations in lakes will be considerably lower than these steady-state predictions within decades if timber harvesting occurs in the drainage basins.