Estimating annual visitors flow in Daisetsuzan National Park, Japan: combining self-registration books and infrared trail traffic counters

Abstract

Information on visitor flow is fundamental to the management of recreation areas. Without such data, recreation managers cannot develop appropriate action plans to maintain a healthy ecosystem and the quality of visitor experiences. Little attention has been paid in Japan on estimating the exact number of visitors to a facility, especially in multi-trailhead systems. A new study in Daisetsuzan National Park, northern Japan, develops a systematic method of estimating visitor flow in complicated trail systems using infrared trail traffic counters and self-registration books. The focus is on using self-registration data that has been underutilized in USA and European countries. Results show that the estimated number of trekkers, 124,000, is almost twice that estimated using only self-registration data, which is commonly adopted by recreation managers as an official number of trekkers. In addition, this method enables us to detect considerable time-series variations of trekker number on any specific trailhead and assists planning measures to combat overuse of segments of the trail system. However, characteristic of this method is that the estimators are biased, and always underestimates. And the smaller the number of visitors at a low-used trailhead, the larger the error is likely to be. Furthermore, an extremely high rate of one-way-trip trekkers on self-registration data invites a critical error. We must also draw attention to the flaws, when we implement this method.