Abstract
Abstract A tree growth and mortality model was developed to simulate timber production with and without tree mortality caused by the western pine beetle, Dendroctonus brevicomis LeConte. Stumpage value at time of harvest was discounted back to the time of mortality. A logging cost model was used to estimate revenue generated from salvaging killed trees. These values were assembled to estimate the value at risk from western pine beetle-caused tree mortality. Simulated estimates of beetle impact were affected by interest rate, time of final harvest, spatial aggregation of mortality, and distribution of mortality in relation to tree diameter and stand density. The model developed here simplified certain biological relationships. Its development highlighted the lack of quantitative data on biological factors affecting western pine beetle impact. Forest Sci. 32:325-338.
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