Estimating and controlling for spatial structure in the study of ecological communities

Abstract

ABSTRACTAim Variation partitioning based on canonical analysis is the most commonly used analysis to investigate community patterns according to environmental and spatial predictors. Ecologists use this method in order to understand the pure contribution of the environment independent of space, and vice versa, as well as to control for inflated type I error in assessing the environmental component under spatial autocorrelation. Our goal is to use numerical simulations to compare how different spatial predictors and model selection procedures perform in assessing the importance of the spatial component and in controlling for type I error while testing environmental predictors.Innovation We determine for the first time how the ability of commonly used (polynomial regressors) and novel methods based on eigenvector maps compare in the realm of spatial variation partitioning. We introduce a novel forward selection procedure to select spatial regressors for community analysis. Finally, we point out a number of issues that have not been previously considered about the joint explained variation between environment and space, which should be taken into account when reporting and testing the unique contributions of environment and space in patterning ecological communities.Main conclusions In tests of species‐environment relationships, spatial autocorrelation is known to inflate the level of type I error and make the tests of significance invalid. First, one must determine if the spatial component is significant using all spatial predictors (Moran's eigenvector maps). If it is, consider a model selection for the set of spatial predictors (an individual‐species forward selection procedure is to be preferred) and use the environmental and selected spatial predictors in a partial regression or partial canonical analysis scheme. This is an effective way of controlling for type I error in such tests. Polynomial regressors do not provide tests with a correct level of type I error.