Abstract
The Banana Bunchy Top Virus (BBTV) is one of the most economically important vector-borne banana diseases throughout the Asia-Pacific Basin and presents a significant challenge to the agricultural sector. Current models of BBTV are largely deterministic, limited by an incomplete understanding of interactions in complex natural systems, and the appropriate identification of parameters. A stochastic network-based Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible model has been created which simulates the spread of BBTV across the subsections of a banana plantation, parameterising nodal recovery, neighbouring and distant infectivity across summer and winter. Findings from posterior results achieved through Markov Chain Monte Carlo approach to approximate Bayesian computation suggest seasonality in all parameters, which are influenced by correlated changes in inspection accuracy, temperatures and aphid activity. This paper demonstrates how the model may be used for monitoring and forecasting of various disease management strategies to support policy-level decision making.
Highlights
The Banana Bunchy Top Virus (BBTV) is one of the most economically important vectorborne banana diseases throughout the Asia-Pacific Basin
A stochastic network-based Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible model has been created which simulates the spread of BBTV across the subsections of a banana plantation, parameterising nodal recovery, neighbouring and distant infectivity across summer and winter
Findings from posterior results achieved through Markov Chain Monte Carlo approach to approximate Bayesian computation suggest seasonality in all parameters, which are influenced by correlated changes in inspection accuracy, temperatures and aphid activity
Summary
The Banana Bunchy Top Virus (BBTV) is one of the most economically important vectorborne banana diseases throughout the Asia-Pacific Basin. The disease was first introduced to Australia in 1913 via infected suckers from Fiji, and spread locally through the banana aphid, Pentalonia nigronervosa [1]. With limited knowledge on epidemiological characteristics of the disease or disease management approaches, incidence rates across Australian banana plantations rose rapidly, eradicating over 90% of national crop production in the 1930’s [2]. Cook et al [3] estimate that the economic benefits of BBTV exclusion from commercial plantations range from $15.9 to $20.7 million each year, approximately 5% of annual crop production value. Aggressive disease management strategies implemented by the Australian Government from the 1930s-90s have largely restricted the disease to the South-East Queensland and Northern New South Wales regions of Australia [4]. Eradication, has not been achieved, requiring continuous monitoring by the National BBTV Program
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