Abstract
(1) Background: Examine global data from 48 African countries to estimate the SARS-CoV-2 infection fatality rate; (2) Methods: We analyzed time series data on the 135,126 confirmed cases and 3922 deaths from COVID-19 disease outbreak in Africa through 30 May 2020. In a Bayesian prediction model based on the Monte Carlo approach, we adjusted for demographic, economic, biological, and societal variables to account for the untested people; (3) Results: We calculated a total of 1,686,879 COVID-19 infections after correcting for possible risk variables in the Bayesian model, equal to 13 infections per confirmed case. In Africa, the IFR is projected to be 0.23% (95% CI: 0.14–0.33%). The percentages varied by country, ranging from 0.004% in Botswana and the Central African Republic to 1.53% in Nigeria. The projected IFR is twelvefold greater than the WHO’s 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic estimate (0.02%). In four countries: Morocco, Nigeria, Cameroon, and South Africa, the inverse distance weighted interpolation map shows high IFR variability; (4) Conclusions: COVID-19 infection mortality rates can vary significantly between regions, and this might be due to changes in demography, underlying health conditions in the community, healthcare system capacity, positive health seeking behavior, and other variables.
Highlights
As of 18 July 2020, 13,876,441 confirmed cases and 593,087 deaths due to coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), caused by the novel severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), had been reported worldwide [1]
We used the Bayesian parametric model to predict the cumulative number of Our analysis was based on 48 of the 54 African countries that reported confirmed individuals infected with COVID-19 as of 30 May 2020
Assessing the infection fatality rate of COVID-19 is crucial to determine the appropriateness of mitigation strategies and to enable planning for healthcare needs as epidemics unfold
Summary
As of 18 July 2020, 13,876,441 confirmed cases and 593,087 deaths due to coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), caused by the novel severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), had been reported worldwide [1]. Most persons infected with the COVID-19 virus will have mild to moderate respiratory symptoms and will recover without needing any therapy. Prevention and Control (ECDC), the spread had reached 54 countries in Africa with a total of 135,126 laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 cases and 3922 COVID-19 related deaths. Six of Africa’s 54 countries (Eritrea, Lesotho, Namibia, Rwanda, Seychelles, and Uganda) had not yet reported any COVID-19 deaths as of 30 May 2020. To understand the severity of infection during an outbreak, that is, the virulence of the causative agent, the common epidemiological practice is to estimate the case fatality
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