Estimates of irrigation requirements throughout Germany under varying climatic conditions

Abstract

As climate change brings about hotter and often drier summers, an improved understanding of how irrigation requirements vary according to climatic conditions is of increasing importance. Within Germany, temperate conditions have historically enabled most agriculture to be supplied solely by green water, but recent crop yield reductions and crop failures have demonstrated its increased vulnerability to climatic conditions. The raster-based mGROWA hydrological water balance model was implemented over all agricultural areas in Germany for the period 1961–2020 at a high spatial (200 m) and temporal (daily) resolution. Grid-cells were each assigned one of 10 major crop classes, which account for 86.7 % of all agricultural areas in Germany, and effectively all irrigated areas. Using crop-specific irrigation rules that reflect actual practices, irrigation requirements were simulated for all crop areas. To investigate the relationship between climatic water balance over the crop growing season and irrigation requirements, the simulated annual irrigation requirements were compared with the standardised precipitation-evapotranspiration index (SPEI-6), calculated at the end of September. Through this comparison, irrigation requirements could be characterised for near-normal and dry conditions, and results were aggregated to the district level. Additionally, using district-level data on the areas with irrigation infrastructure, the actual water used for irrigation was estimated. The results highlight marked increases in irrigation requirements in dry conditions compared to near-normal conditions (median increase of 72 %), which are more pronounced over crops in silty soils than in sandy soils. The results also demonstrate how the increased irrigation requirements in dry years are in many cases higher than what is suggested by guidelines for irrigation management in Germany. This study provides important information for actors related to the agricultural sector and water management and is based on a robust and transferable framework to quantify how irrigation requirements vary according to climatic variability and local soil conditions.