Abstract
BackgroundGiven the interconnectivity of Brazil with the rest of the world, Zika virus (ZIKV) infections have the potential to spread rapidly around the world via viremic travellers. The extent of spread depends on the travel volume and the endemicity in the exporting country. In the absence of reliable surveillance data, we did mathematical modelling to estimate the number of importations of ZIKV from Brazil into Europe.DesignWe applied a previously developed mathematical model on importations of dengue to estimate the number of ZIKV importations into Europe, based on the travel volume, the probability of being infected at the time of travel, the population size of Brazil, and the estimated incidence of ZIKV infections.ResultsOur model estimated between 508 and 1,778 imported infections into Europe in 2016, of which we would expect between 116 and 355 symptomatic Zika infections; with the highest number of importations being into France, Portugal and Italy.ConclusionsOur model identified high-risk countries in Europe. Such data can assist policymakers and public health professionals in estimating the extent of importations in order to prepare for the scale up of laboratory diagnostic assays and estimate the occurrence of Guillain–Barré Syndrome, potential sexual transmission, and infants with congenital ZIKV syndrome.
Highlights
In May 2015, an outbreak of Zika virus (ZIKV) infections was first reported in Brazil, and by December 2015, 500,0001,500,000 ZIKV infections were estimated [1]
Such data can assist policymakers and public health professionals in estimating the extent of importations in order to prepare for the scale up of laboratory diagnostic assays and estimate the occurrence of GuillainBarré Syndrome, potential sexual transmission, and infants with congenital ZIKV syndrome
The number of travellers departing from Brazilian airports on commercial flights to each of the European countries was obtained from the International Air Transport Association (IATA) for the year 2012
Summary
In May 2015, an outbreak of Zika virus (ZIKV) infections was first reported in Brazil, and by December 2015, 500,0001,500,000 ZIKV infections were estimated [1]. By. October 2015, increasing number of microcephaly cases and other neonatal malformations were thought to be associated with ZIKV infections [2]. Given the interconnectivity of Brazil with the remainder of the world, ZIKV has the potential to spread rapidly around the world via viremic travellers [4]. Given that sexual transmission of ZIKV has been reported, the spread of ZIKV via viremic travellers to areas without the Aedes mosquitoes is of concern [8]. It is important to estimate the potential number of travellers returning to Europe with ZIKV infections. Given the interconnectivity of Brazil with the rest of the world, Zika virus (ZIKV) infections have the potential to spread rapidly around the world via viremic travellers. In the absence of reliable surveillance data, we did mathematical modelling to estimate the number of importations of ZIKV from Brazil into Europe
Sign-in/Register to view highlights & summary Sign-in/Register to access full text options 
Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a callDisclaimer: All third-party content on this website/platform is and will remain the property of their respective owners and is provided on "as is" basis without any warranties, express or implied. Use of third-party content does not indicate any affiliation, sponsorship with or endorsement by them. Any references to third-party content is to identify the corresponding services and shall be considered fair use under The CopyrightLaw.
