ESTIMATED MODELS OF OCCURRENCE DIARRHEA IN MAKASSAR

Abstract

Diarrhea estimation is a vital aspects of diarrehea prevalence in Makassar city.This study aims to estimate the occurrence of Diarrhea in Makassar City for 10 years (2017 - 2027) with the approach of dynamic model without scenario (pessimistic level), estimate the occurrence of Diarrhea in Makassar City for 10 years (2017 - 2027) with dynamic model approach with combined scenario improvement of basic sanitation, food and beverage sanitation, snack consumption and moderate hygiene scenario scenarios, and estimates the incidence of Diarrhea in Makassar City for 10 years (2017 - 2027) using a dynamic model approach with optimistic mixed scenarios. The design of this research is cross sectional with dynamic system model approach. The research was conducted in Makassar City which was chosen purposively. For estimation model of diarrhea occurrence using dynamic modeling with Stella 5.0. The population in this study is the entire community residing in Makassar City. The sample of the study is the people affected by diarrhea recorded in the case report records in the Health Office of Makassar City 2012-2016. Result of research of Diarrhea event estimation in Makassar City for 10 years (2017 - 2027) without scenario (pessimistic level) shows that 10 years to come that is 2017 - 2027 incidence Diarrhea in Makassar City increased up to 1,10 times every month with percentage by 110% within 10 years with Diarrhea case of 145,855 cases in 2017 to 471,884 cases in 2027. Estimated incidence of diarrhea (for 2017-2027) with dynamic model approach with combined scenario of basic sanitation, sanitation food and beverages, the scenario of reducing the consumption of snacks and moderate-level personal hygiene scenario shows that during 2017 - 2027 incidence Diarrhea has decreased to 3.00 times every month with percentage of 300% when compared to the level scenario pessimist within 10 years with Diarrhea case of 48,167 cases at t 2017 to 155,057 cases in 2027.