Abstract
The projected climate change in the 21st century is expected to affect various forest ecosystems with corresponding ecological, economic, and social impact. Adaptation measures for forestry need to be planned well in advance, because the forests being regenerated today will have to cope with future climate conditions in long time periods. Here we use a process-based forward model of tree growth, VS-Lite, calibrated and independently validated on tree-ring data and forced by climate projections according to various greenhouse gas emission scenarios. We estimate the ensemble radial tree growth of pine in Povolzhie region in the future. Our projections show a constant tree growth throughout the 21st century. The increased temperature will slightly favour the tree growth, especially in the case of an extended growth season, while mostly constant precipitation will not lead to any soil moisture deficit. The results of this study are crucial for the development of Povolzhie region in the near or remote future.
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