Estimated incidence of tuberculosis by capture-recapture in the Balearic Islands, 2010-2012.

Abstract

The Balearic Islands, Spain, 2010-2012. To assess the completeness of TB surveillance, and to examine observed and estimated incidence rates (IR) compared with the period 2005-2007. The completeness of TB surveillance was assessed using the capture-recapture method. Confidence intervals were calculated using log-linear models. Data sources were records of mandatory notifiable diseases, active hospital surveillance and computerised primary health care history. Surveillance completeness for respiratory TB (R-TB) was 99.5%; it was 100% for non-respiratory TB (NR-TB). The overall observed IR was 16.32 cases/100 000 for all types of TB, 3.4 for NR-TB and 12.9 for R-TB. The estimated IR of TB all forms was 16.35/100 000 (95%CI 16.26-16.53), for NR-TB it was 3.4/100 000 (95%CI not calculated) and for R-TB it was 13.0/100 000 (95%CI 12.85-13.12). Surveillance completeness for R-TB during the period 2005-2007 was 65.2%; the observed IR was 22.6/100 000 and the estimated IR 31.3/10 000 (95%CI 25.0-37.7). The similarity of observed and estimated IR during the period 2010-2012 indicates the validity of the surveillance and the use of improved systems such as electronic medical records in recent years.