Estimated HALEU Requirements for Advanced Reactors to Support a Net-Zero Emissions Economy by 2050

Abstract

The primary purpose of this report is to provide a documented estimate of High-Assay Low-Enriched Uranium (HALEU) needs that may be used in Department of Energy discussions with stakeholders as part of preparations to establish the HALEU Availability Program authorized by the Energy Act of 2020. This report employed a two-step process to estimate HALEU needs for commercial advanced reactors. First, a scenario analysis was conducted using the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM) to generate a projection of U.S. electricity generation capacity consistent with achieving net-zero emissions, economy-wide, by 2050. The model allows a carbon tax to be imposed on all carbon emissions sources to progressively limit total annual CO2 emissions for achieving the net-zero emission goal. A carbon tax of ~$100/tCO2 in 2025 and growing to ~$350/tCO2 by 2050 was required for a straight-line emissions reduction to net-zero by 2050. This resulted in significant changes in the electricity generation mix, including the addition of carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) to all fossil fuel-based generation, growth in renewable energy including biofuels with CCS, and growth of nuclear energy to ~250 GW installed capacity by 2050. The GCAM analysis did not differentiate among different types of nuclear reactors. Second, a spreadsheet model was developed that achieved the GCAM projection for nuclear capacity in 2050 using an assumed mix of conventional and advanced nuclear reactors; some of these reactor types require HALEU and others do not. It was assumed that new construction would employ roughly equal capacity shares of four different reactor types: • A GW-scale Light Water Reactor (LWR) represented by the AP-1000 design • A small modular LWR represented by the NuScale design • An advanced sodium-cooled fast reactor represented by the Natrium design • An advanced high temperature gas-cooled reactor represented by the Xe-100 design. The model included constraints on reactor deployments based on technology availability and growth rates to produce the deployment schedule. The reactor deployment schedule was then used to calculate the amount of HALEU needed each year to support the initial start-up (first cores) and operation (fuel reloads) of the advanced reactors. Total cumulative HALEU needed by 2050 for this scenario is ~5,350 MT @ 19.75% 235U with a range of 3,450-7,175 MT depending on the advanced reactor mix. This estimation reflects the impact of down-blending from 19.75% to the target enrichments for each type of non-LWR, which average around 16%. The HALEU is first needed in small amounts for reactor demonstrations starting in 2027, then increases as more reactors are deployed, reaching ~520 MT/yr in 2050, split ~ 2/3rd for reloads and 1/3rd for start-up cores for new reactors. The above amounts do not include consideration of fuels enriched to slightly over 5% for the LWRs. The analysis included growth in electricity usage that supports electrification and the decarbonization of end-use sectors. Nuclear reactor applications for industrial heat and hydrogen production were not investigated in this analysis. The HALEU needs may also vary significantly upward or downward if one of the four reactor types does not achieve assumed growth or other electricity generation technologies such as CCS mature differently than assumed.