ESTIMATED GEODYNAMIC IMPACT FROM ZONES OF COLLISION AND SUBDUCTION ON THE SEISMOTECTONIC REGIME IN THE BAIKAL RIFT

Abstract

The paper briefly overviews the evolution of ideas concerning causes and mechanisms related to the origin of the Baikal rift zone (BRZ) in the centre of the Eurasian plate, discusses parameters of the recent seismogeodynamic impact on the seismotectonic regime in BRZ due to the Western Pacific subduction and the Indo-Eurasian collision, and attempts at estimating their contributions to the modern geodynamics of rifting processes in Pribaikalie. Seismic migration processes and specific density patterns of the released seismic energy are analyzed for two selected profiles between BRZ and the regions of collision and subduction. A statistical method is proposed to calculate seismic migration from space-time diagrams, and equations are developed to show a decrease in specific density of seismic energy released in the lithosphere at a distance from the interplate boundaries towards the Baikal rift. The modern geodynamic impact on the seismotectonic regime in BRZ due to the Indo-Eurasian collision is reflected in moderate horizontal compression of the lithosphere, mainly in the southwestern BRZ and partly in the central BRZ. In the transition area in this profile, the specific density of released seismic energy is about 1.72×1010 J/km2. The geodynamic impact on the seismotectonic regime in BRZ from the subduction zone (from the Nankai trough) is shown by a significantly lower specific density of released seismic energy, 1.02×1010 J/km2. In the lithosphere of the northeastern BRZ, a weaker geodynamic influence is mainly manifested by responses to strong seismic events and earthquake focal mechanisms with a clear strike-slip component in the Chara and Tokka basins located in the Aldan shield of the Siberian platform. We discuss a possible mechanism that drives the propagation of the geodynamic impact on BRZ from the interplate contact areas. In our opinion, the geodynamic influence propagates intermittently in the lithospheric plates due to motions of slow-deformation-wave fronts, which are reflected in the diagrams as seismic activity clusters. The longrange propagation of slow waves is realized through triggering of active faults in the lithosphere. Such faults interacting with slow wave deformations may be manifested as excited sources of dissipation of seismic oscillations resulting from a spontaneous release of the energy accumulated in the Earth interior. This mechanism of endogenous energy supply may explain the observed propagation of recordable slow elastoplastic deformations for many thousands of kilometres. Today, when the new materials are available to show more ancient ages of the early elements of BRZ, and it is established that the tectonic energy is reduced with distance from the interplate boundaries, there is no support for the hypothesis based on the role of the Indo-Eurasian collision in the formation of BRZ. A recordable seismotectonic impact on the seismic regime in BRZ can occasionally occur after a major seismic activity in the regions of collision and subduction. This phenomenon may be used as a criterion for developing medium-term earthquake predictions, taking into account a delay in response. Short-term cycles observed in the seismic regime of BRZ and its adjacent areas, as well as in the seismic migration processes are considered as a basis for making a conclusion that seismotectonic processes associated with interactions between the plates, as well as the seismic migration processes may be impacted by a potential modulating influence of cosmogenic factors. Such extraterrestrial factors include short-term variations in the Earth’s rotation and orbiting modes, as well as in gravitational interactions between the Earth, Sun and Moon. It is unlikely that the shortterm cycles may result from the slow endogenous processes of thermal convection in the Earth.