Estimated Economic Impacts of Potential Policy Changes Affecting the Total Allowable Catch for Walleye Pollock

Abstract

Abstract Walleye pollock Theragra chalcogramma accounts for approximately 1 of every 20 kg of world landings of fish, shellfish, and crustaceans. There has, however, been little formal market analysis of walleye pollock. In this paper, an international econometric demand and supply model is constructed and estimated for walleye pollock caught in the waters off Alaska. The Japanese market for surimi was the most important modeled factor in determining exvessel prices for Alaska pollock. Model simulations were employed to investigate potential revenue effects of changes in the total allowable catch. In the short run, policy decisions that increase harvest from 1993 levels would also increase revenues to the pollock harvesting sector. In 1993, exvessel revenues would have continued to increase until harvest levels reached 1.7 million metric tons, at which point revenues would have started to decline. Likewise, decreases in harvest from 1993 levels would have lowered exvessel revenues.