Estimate of alternative innovative and investment projects using the analytic hierarchy process with the developed at DELPHI program

Abstract

The criteria which are currently used for analysis and control of the investment process and the result of investing in innovative projects do not take into account all the constraints, interrelation and interdependence of processes, elements of the system and give only approximate results, confirming thus the necessity to develop new decisionmaking methods and models, best reflecting bothr actual processes and their intuitive perception. The usage of modern management practices of optimization models, based on linear programming, does not consider institutional factors, does not reflect the impact of the human factor and does not allow to reduce the riskiness due to incompleteness and a rare meeting to high-quality information. Methods of fuzzy sets theory allow to formalize not exactly formulated qualitative data, at that, by setting the value of qualitative and quantitative assessment using fuzzy numbers helps also to establish their degree of fuzziness (uncertainty), which makes it possible, based on the qualifications of the expert to use a configuration that defines the area of blur at various levels set parameters, The program of estimation of management in innovative-investment projects at the enterprise efficiency in the conditions of uncertainty and risk with use of methods of fuzzy sets theory is developed by authors in Delphi and allows to considerably simplify performing difficult calculations, to reduce calculation time, and, finally, to expand the practical use of estimation methods