Estimation and prediction of COVID-19 cases in Brazilian metropolises.

George Jó Bezerra Sousa,Virna Ribeiro Feitosa Cestari,Maria Lúcia Duarte Pereira,Thiago Santos Garces,Thereza Maria Magalhães Moreira,Raquel Sampaio Florêncio

doi:10.1590/1518-8345.4501.3345

Abstract

Objective to estimate the transmission rate, the epidemiological peak, and the number of deaths by the new coronavirus.Method a mathematical and epidemiological model of susceptible, infected, and recovered cases was applied to the nine Brazilian capitals with the highest number of cases of the infection. The number of cases for the 80 days following the first case was estimated by solving the differential equations. The results were logarithmized and compared with the actual values to observe the model fit. In all scenarios, it was considered that no preventive measures had been taken.Results the nine metropolises studied showed an upward curve of confirmed cases of COVID-19. The prediction data point to the peak of the infection between late April and early May. Fortaleza and Manaus had the highest transmission rates (≥2·0 and ≥1·8, respectively). Rio de Janeiro may have the largest number of infected people (692,957) and Florianópolis the smallest (24,750).Conclusion the estimates of the transmission rate, epidemiological peak, and number of deaths from coronavirus in Brazilian metropolises presented expressive and important numbers the Brazilian Ministry of Health needs to consider. The results confirm the rapid spread of the virus and its high mortality in the country.

Highlights

Introduction and their social acceptanceGiven the above, this research aimed to estimate the transmission rate, The new coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) belongs to a epidemiological peak, and the number of deaths family of viruses that cause diseases in the human by COVID-19 in the nine Brazilian capitals with the respiratory system
Results: the nine metropolises studied showed an upward curve of confirmed cases of COVID-19
On February 3rd, a public health emergency was decreed in the country, and on March 20th, 2020, community transmission of the disease was announced in the country[7]

Summary

Original Article

Objective: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1670-725X to estimate the transmission rate, the epidemiological peak, and the number of deaths by the new. Thereza Maria Magalhães Moreira model of susceptible, infected, and recovered cases was https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1424-0649 applied to the nine Brazilian capitals with the highest number. Raquel Sampaio Florêncio of cases of the infection. The number of cases for the 80 https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3119-7187. Results: the nine metropolises studied showed an upward curve of confirmed cases of COVID-19. The prediction data point to the peak of the infection between late April and early May. Fortaleza and Manaus had the highest transmission rates (≥2·0 and ≥1·8, respectively). Scholarship holder at the Fundação Cearense de Apoio of the transmission rate, epidemiological peak, and number of ao Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (FUNCAP), Brazil. Scholarship holder at the Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES), Brazil

Scholarship holder at the Conselho

How to cite this article

URL month day year

The first confirmed case outside

This work did not require Ethics Committee approval

Results

The cases estimated with the help of the SIR model

Maximum number of deaths

Conclusion

Apr observed