Abstract

BackgroundThis study aimed to establish nomogram models of overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS) in elderly colorectal cancer (ECRC) patients (Age ≥ 70).MethodsThe clinical variables of patients confirmed as ECRC between 2004 and 2016 were retrieved from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. Univariate and multivariate analysis were performed, followed by the construction of nomograms in OS and CSS.ResultsA total of 44,761 cases were finally included in this study. Both C-index and calibration plots indicated noticeable performance of newly established nomograms. Moreover, nomograms also showed higher outcomes of decision curve analysis (DCA) and the area under the curve (AUC) compared to American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) tumor-node-metastasis (TNM) stage and SEER stage.ConclusionsThis study established nomograms of elderly colorectal cancer patients with distinct clinical values compared to AJCC TNM and SEER stages regarding both OS and CSS.

Highlights

  • This study aimed to establish nomogram models of overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS) in elderly colorectal cancer (ECRC) patients (Age ≥ 70)

  • Recruitment of patients from SEER database The clinical variables of patients confirmed as ECRC between 2004 and 2016 were retrieved from the SEER database, a program established by National Cancer Institute aiming for comprehensively national-level clinical investigation [16, 17]

  • Characterization of included cases Following inclusion criteria, a total of 44,761 cases were included in this study with 22,381 assigned to training set and 22,380 to validation set randomly (Fig. 1)

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Summary

Introduction

This study aimed to establish nomogram models of overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS) in elderly colorectal cancer (ECRC) patients (Age ≥ 70). Methods: The clinical variables of patients confirmed as ECRC between 2004 and 2016 were retrieved from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. Univariate and multivariate analysis were performed, followed by the construction of nomograms in OS and CSS. Colorectal cancer has been ranked as the second most common malignancy in women and third in men across the world. There are more than 50,000 death reports and over 130,000 newly occurred cases in the United States [2]. In European Union, 215,000 cases have been reported with colorectal cancer being listed as the second common cause of death [3]. The impact of colorectal cancer surgery on the elder group, regarding long term survival, is similar to that of younger group [10]

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