Establishment and validation of a prognostic nomogram for extrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma.

Abstract

Accurately estimate the prognosis of patients with ECCA is important. However, the TNM system has some limitations, such as low accuracy, exclusion of other factors (e.g., age and sex), and poor performance in predicting individual survival risk. In contrast, a nomogram-based clinical model related to a comprehensive analysis of all risk factors is intuitive and straightforward, facilitating the probabilistic analysis of tumor-related risk factors. Simultaneously, a nomogram can also effectively drive personalized medicine and facilitate clinicians for prognosis prediction. Therefore, we construct a novel practical nomogram and risk stratification system to predict CSS in patients with ECCA. Accurately estimate the prognosis of patients with extrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (ECCA) was important, but the existing staging system has limitations. The present study aimed to construct a novel practical nomogram and risk stratification system to predict cancer-specific survival (CSS) in ECCA patients. 3415 patients diagnosed with ECCA between 2010 and 2015 were selected from the SEER database and randomized into a training cohort and a validation cohort at 7:3. The nomogram was identified and calibrated using the C-index, receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC), and calibration plots. Decision curve analysis (DCA), net reclassification index (NRI), integrated discrimination improvement (IDI) and the risk stratification were used to compare the nomogram with the AJCC staging system. Nine variables were selected to establish the nomogram. The C-index (training cohort:0.785; validation cohort:0.776) and time-dependent AUC (>0.7) showed satisfactory discrimination. The calibration plots also revealed that the nomogram was consistent with the actual observations. The NRI (training cohort: 1-, 2-, and 3-year CSS:0.27, 0.27,0.52; validation cohort:1-,2-,3-year CSS:0.48,0.13,0.34), IDI (training cohort: 1-, 2-, 3-year CSS:0.22,0.18,0.16; validation cohort: 1-,2-,3-year CSS:0.18,0.16,0.17), and DCA indicated that the established nomogram significantly outperformed the AJCC staging system (P<0.05) and had better recognition compared to the AJCC staging system. We developed a practical prognostic nomogram to help clinicians assess the prognosis of patients with ECCA.