Abstract
This paper analyzes the influencing factors of carbon dioxide emissions from four aspects: Population, economy, industrial structure and energy, then from the carbon emissions, economic development, industrial structure, energy consumption structure to show the status quo of carbon emissions in Hubei Province. Based on the analysis of the influencing factors, the main influencing factors of carbon emission are population, regional gross product and coal consumption The multivariate linear regression model and the polynomial curve model are established and the error analysis is carried out. The combination weight coefficients of two single models are obtained through the linear programming model and the combination forecasting model is established, finally, the corresponding countermeasures to reduce carbon emissions are put forward.
Highlights
In March 2011, Hubei Province was selected as one of the country’s first seven carbon trading pilot provinces and cities
The error index value of the polynomial curve model is close to that of the combination forecasting model, it is not difficult to see that the index value of the combination forecasting model is smaller, which proves that the combination forecasting model is better than the single polynomial curve model, the prediction accuracy is improved when the multivariate linear regression equation is used, so the combined prediction model can be used to predict the CO2 emission in Hubei Province
The contents include: (1) the linear programming model is established on the principle of minimum variance, the combination weights of multivariate linear regression model and polynomial curve model are 0.096 and 0.904 respectively
Summary
In March 2011, Hubei Province was selected as one of the country’s first seven carbon trading pilot provinces and cities. Under the extensive economic development pattern of many years, Hubei Province has developed bottlenecks: insufficient industrial resources, low energy utilization efficiency, and worsening environmental problems, it can be seen that the development of intensive and low-carbon economy is indispensable.The study and comparative analysis of the current situation of carbon emissions in Hubei Province and the whole country can provide better decision-making recommendations for the environmental protection and low-carbon economic transformation in Hubei Province, it provides the effective reference for the National Energy Utilization and the carbon emission control, and has certain practical significance. The data of carbon emission in Hubei Province is analyzed and compared with the national carbon emission situation, combining the influence factors of population, regional GDP, coal, oil, natural gas and hydropower consumption, the main influencing factors are screened through the grey relational grade evaluation model, and the multiple linear regression and polynomial curve combination model are established to forecast the carbon emission of Hubei Province, based on the assessment of the achievement of the carbon emission reduction target and the analysis of the emission reduction potential in Hubei Province, the corresponding countermeasures for reducing carbon emissions are put forward
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