Abstract
The Biliu River originates from the southern foot of Qinling Mountain in Gaizhou city, with an elevation of 1047 m, and is the largest river in Dalian. The hydrological elements mainly include rainfall, runoff, temperature, evaporation, and other time series associated with the hydrological cycle. Among them, runoff is the most visible output performance, and the direct source of runoff is during rainfall. This paper establishes a reservoir scheduling model that considers the influence of multiple uncertainty factors and analyzes the influence of mixed uncertainty on reservoir scheduling and Xingli’s objectives based on probability box theory. In terms of uncertainties, the uncertainty of hydrological model parameters and the randomness of precipitation processes are mainly considered, with the former having an impact on river runoff simulation and the latter having an impact on both river runoff simulation and crop irrigation water demand. In the case of the Jing River basin, for example, the results show that, compared to the stochasticity of the precipitation process, the variation in precipitation has a significant effect on irrigation water demand in maize, followed by the frequency of precipitation, and the interaction between the two is not significant.
Highlights
With the rapid socioeconomic development and the influence of changing environment, the contradiction between supply and demand of water resources in the Yellow River basin is becoming more and more acute, and, under the background of uncertainty research, it is of great practical significance to identify the changing characteristics of hydrological processes in river basins and carry out research on water resources regulation and control in order to cope with climate change, explore the sustainable use of water resources in the new era, and improve the efficiency of water resource utilization [1]
Simulation results show that the simulation value and the observed value of the Biliu River hydraulic station are in good agreement with the trend of change, indicating that the flow process is adequately fitted. e result is bad, and the simulation value is generally smaller than the measured value. is may be due to the fact that the effect of snowmelt is not considered. e monthly runoff distribution of the billiards can analyze changes in average monthly runoff from 1981 to 1995 and between 1996 and 2011. e period of abundant water is June to September, and the peak of the runoff reaches August and begins to decrease, and the dry period is from October to May of the year
The uncertainty results show that the P-factor of the rate period is 0.88 and the R-factor is 0.61, which satisfies the criterion that when the P-factor >0.7 and the R-factor
Summary
With the rapid socioeconomic development and the influence of changing environment, the contradiction between supply and demand of water resources in the Yellow River basin is becoming more and more acute, and, under the background of uncertainty research, it is of great practical significance to identify the changing characteristics of hydrological processes in river basins and carry out research on water resources regulation and control in order to cope with climate change, explore the sustainable use of water resources in the new era, and improve the efficiency of water resource utilization [1]. How to diagnose the inherent change law of hydrometeorological element dependency and the variation of its correlation is a scientific problem that needs to be solved urgently [14] At this stage, relatively little research has been done in this area. The influence of human activities such as afforestation, grass planting, and terrace construction on the conversion mechanism of stormwater floods will exist for a long period of time, so it is of great practical and theoretical significance to study the risk of extreme rainfall and flooding events under the premise of considering the influence of the changing environment, so as to provide more practical risk information on regional flood risk assessment and flood management. For maize irrigation, followed by an increased precipitation volume compared to the probability of precipitation processes. e interaction between the two is not important
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