Establishing trust and distrust when states leave international organisations: the case of Brexit

Abstract

ABSTRACT Although EU and UK participants in Brexit negotiations emphasise the role that trust and distrust played for them, existing Brexit research has largely disregarded this factor. From a trust perspective, withdrawals from international organisations are highly significant events. When states leave a common institution and their relationship with each other is deprived of previous institutional certainties, trust becomes both necessary and precarious. Building on insights from trust research in International Relations, we argue that the former partners gauge whether the other side can be trusted based on two types of signals: signals of benevolence and of integrity. Our analysis shows that during Boris Johnson’s premiership, the EU lost trust in the UK government’s benevolence and integrity, mainly because the UK repeatedly failed to honour previous commitments. Rishi Sunak’s government countered the signals sent by its predecessor. By demonstrating its integrity and benevolence, it succeeded in rebuilding trust and facilitated the conclusion of the ‘Windsor Framework’. This not only sheds light on an under-researched dimension of the Brexit process. It also contributes to trust research, which has yet to fully acknowledge both the significance of signals of trustworthiness and leadership transitions in creating windows of opportunity for changes in trust dynamics.