Establishing the requirements for safe rocket launches with respect to weather

Abstract

Space Concordia is launching the biggest student built Canadian rocket with the aim of passing the Karman Line. Launching from Churchill, Manitoba, a former military airbase used in the 1950s for suborbital sounding rocket launches, Space Concordia’s ambition is to reinstate the zone as a launch site. Being the first launch out of Churchill in decades, safety is mandatory and must follow the established safety protocols and regulations for suborbital launch vehicles. Space Concordia must structure its own guidelines and requirements leveraging expertise from the Federal Aviation Administration and various agreements with local authorities. To ensure safety, the Flight Performance team runs wind weighting optimization algorithms using Astos, a 6 degree of freedom flight simulation software utilizing wind data from a weather balloon. Launch simulations in Astos are done using historical wind data through a combination of Python and A programming and numeric computing software (MATLAB) analysis scripts. Casualty expectation plays a significant role in the launch safety analysis since the launch site is situated next to a national park and multiple small communities. The probability of casualty is calculated to be 2.61E−8, which is smaller than the 30E-6 Federal Aviation Administration requirement. Establishing a strict set of guidelines while building a rocket creates many difficulties in terms of both design and regulations, however they permit a clearer structure for future launches made by Space Concordia as well as augment predefined understanding of the weather effect on Churchill suborbital rocket launches.