Abstract
Effective risk assessment can reduce the economic losses and physical damage caused by marine dynamic processes, such as storm surges. Most risk assessments of marine disasters are based on regional parameters and discrete hazard grades. Targeted, multilevel, and multiangle risk assessments are urgently needed. This study focuses on specific types of affected infrastructure. We established a sensitivity matrix by considering the effects of different disaster causal factors on different types of affected infrastructure. Through this matrix, hazards, vulnerability, and emergency response and recovery capability were effectively combined in a risk assessment framework. We completed the risk calculation for multiple concurrent effects of disasters in areas with superimposed key infrastructure using complementary risk superposition. The hazard grade, vulnerability grade, and coefficient of emergency response and recovery capability were established based on the means of return period, characteristics of disaster distribution, types of affected infrastructure and disaster relief distance, and were continuous by solving functions, normal cumulative distributions, and analytic functions. On the basis of reasonable MIKE21 numerical simulation and abstract spatial distribution of vulnerable assets, we tested the rationality of the assessment system in the Lekima typhoon storm surge process. The results showed that the assessment system accurately reflected the risk of damage to the important infrastructure in terms of spatial distribution. Therefore, this risk assessment framework was suitable for the assessment of a marine dynamic disaster process in the lower Laizhou Bay coastal area of the Bohai Sea, China. Moreover, it provided a reference for disaster prevention and reduction, guided the way for decision making, and effectively reduced disaster losses.
Highlights
This study focused on the affected infrastructure as the starting point for building a continuous risk assessment framework. It considered the differences among vulnerable assets in their hazard resistance and the impact of emergency response and recovery capability based on previous risk assessment
This study examined the role of emergency response and recovery capability in disaster assessment based on the real long-term distribution of relief materials in the lower part of Laizhou Bay
MIKE21 numerical simulation results, we developed a risk assessment for the severe typhoon storm surge (Typhoon Lekima’s storm surge) that affected the lower part of Laizhou Bay
Summary
Extreme marine weather events and their effects (storm surge, waves, etc.) are the primary cause of harm to coastal areas around the globe [1,2,3,4]. Researchers have assessed the risk of marine disasters primarily from the perspective of weather systems and crude social indicators, using these factors to establish discrete but artificial risk grades They seldom have considered, the differences among vulnerable assets in their hazard resistance and the role of emergency response and recovery capability in risk assessment. Without this additional consideration, it remains difficult to meet the targeted and multilevel requirements of decision makers. This study focused on the affected infrastructure as the starting point for building a continuous risk assessment framework It considered the differences among vulnerable assets in their hazard resistance and the impact of emergency response and recovery capability based on previous risk assessment
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