Abstract
Abstract. This article presents a methodology for creating anthropogenic emission inventories that can be used to simulate future regional air quality. The Emission Scenario Projection (ESP) methodology focuses on energy production and use, the principal sources of many air pollutants. Emission growth factors for energy system categories are calculated using the MARKAL energy system model. Growth factors for non-energy sectors are based on economic and population projections. These factors are used to grow a 2005 emissions inventory through 2050. The approach is demonstrated for two emission scenarios for the United States. Scenario 1 extends current air regulations through 2050, while Scenario 2 adds a hypothetical CO2 mitigation policy. Although both scenarios show significant reductions in air pollutant emissions through time, these reductions are more pronounced in Scenario 2, where the CO2 policy results in the adoption of technologies with lower emissions of both CO2 and traditional air pollutants. The methodology is expected to play an important role within an integrated modeling framework that supports the US EPA's investigations of linkages among emission drivers, climate and air quality.
Highlights
Introduction and objectivesAnthropogenic air pollutant emissions are responsible for many current air quality problems, including photochemical smog, acid rain, and atmospheric fine particulate matter
Emission constraints on nitrogen oxides (NOx) and SO2 limit the growth of coal, and its market share decreases
As electricity demand in the region grows, the mix shifts toward fossil fuels and pollutant emissions rise. This trend did not occur in Region 5, where electric sector NOx emissions are capped by CAIR
Summary
Anthropogenic air pollutant emissions are responsible for many current air quality problems, including photochemical smog, acid rain, and atmospheric fine particulate matter. New approaches should support modeling time horizons that extend air quality analyses out several additional decades, provide reasonably detailed emission projections for key source categories, and address uncertainty in emission drivers by facilitating the examination of wide-ranging scenarios of the future. A central component of the GCAQA is the implementation of an integrated modeling framework that includes models characterizing global circulation patterns, regional meteorology, economic growth, land-use changes, the energy system, and air quality. Parts of this framework were demonstrated in previous work that examined climate change impacts on air quality, independent of changes in anthropogenic emissions (US EPA, 2009). Refinements to the ESP methodology are ongoing, and short- and long-term improvements are discussed at the end of the paper
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