Escalation to conflict as an ongoing process: the case of July 1914

Abstract

ABSTRACT The sequence leading to conflict, as specifically in July 1914, reveals the changes in each protagonist’s propensity to wage war. To characterize its timing, escalation is viewed as a viability (differential) game in progress under the protagonists’ actions. The chronicle of confrontations and accommodations allows for estimating a responsiveness structure at the heart of the game. As the moves, which are the controls, are observed, and not the state variables, the game reduces to the minimization of a viability criterion under dynamics. Early estimation of the responsiveness structure operationalizes the procedure for crisis management and provides a way to anticipate the consequences of possible moves in escalations to conflict. The application to July 1914 shows the strength of the method.