Escalation of Turkey-Syria conflict in Idlib in February–March 2020: based on the results of event analysis.

Abstract

The subject of this research is the escalation of Turkey-Syria conflict in February–March 2020. The authors explore the prerequisites of the conflict, development stages, escalation factors, and consequences of confrontation. Description is given to the positions of the three opposing actors: Syrian-Russian, Turkish, and NATO bloc. The methodology of event analysis methodology is applied to the conflict. Emphasis is placed on the course of events reflected in charts. Use of the method of event analysis allows tracing the key vectors and their intersection: escalation – peacemaking. The author employs media reports of all parties to the conflict for demonstrating the peculiarities of escalation of the confrontation. The novelty lies in application of the method of event analysis method for assessing the specifics of escalation of the Spring Shield military operation in the conditions of modern hybrid warm, which provides different perspectives on the conflict. The conclusion is made on interaction of the actors and their impact upon escalation and peacemaking. It is established that Syria and Turkey exerted major impact upon escalation of the conflict, while Russia acted as the arbiter and the main force of moderation. Conflict potential of the Idlib crisis remains high and characterized as protracted semi-frozen conflict.