Abstract
The prospects for persistence of Eryngium maritimum in its northern distribution area was evaluated by studying historical data, matrix modelling, dispersal, seed germination and molecular variation. Historical data revealed a fragmented distribution of small populations with decrease in both population numbers and size during the last 150 years. Fruits of E. maritimum were found to have a relative low floating ability, making the prospects of long distance water dispersal more limited than would be expected from the world distribution of the species. Germination was found to be low (< 25 %). Elasticity matrices showed that survival of reproductive plants were more important than reproduction. High juvenile mortality and low germination activity emphasised the importance of rapid growth and survival. The population insurance against natural catastrophes and environmental stochasticity is suggested to be in a “root bank” of established individuals that are able to tolerate disturbances due to clonal reproduction and regrowth from root fragments. Isozyme electrophoresis revealed low molecular variation on a large geographical scale. The chromosome number is 2n = 16. A high degree of fixed heterozygosity suggests that the species is tetraploid with basic chromosome, number x = 4. The persistence prospects of E. maritimum in its northernmost distribution area are considered low considering the small population sizes, the low dispersal ability and low germination.
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