Error modeling and hierarchical Bayesian fusion for spaceborne and ground radar rainfall data

Abstract

The optimal fusion of multisource rainfall data can improve the accuracy and resolution of a posteriori estimates, which is beneficial for hydrological and meteorological applications. In this study, the errors of ground-based dual-polarization radar (GR) and dual-frequency precipitation radar (DPR) on global precipitation measurement (GPM) satellite rainfall estimation were modeled, and a hierarchical Bayesian (HB) framework was developed for GR and DPR rainfall data fusion. According to the matched optimal estimated GR rainfall and rain gauge data, the GR rainfall error was analyzed, and the error variance varying with rain type and intensity was described and modeled. The rain types were classified based on disdrometer and dual-polarization radar data. By comparing the DPR rainfall product with GR rainfall, the DPR rainfall error was divided into systematic and random errors. The systematic error was linearly fitted, and the probability distributions for the random error and the variable error parameters were analyzed and modeled. Because the parameters for GR and DPR rainfall errors varied with rain type and intensity, we developed a HB fusion approach considering the varying parameters in rainfall error modeling. The performance of the fusion algorithm was evaluated using matched GR and DPR cases, which showed that the HB fusion can effectively improve the consistency between the original DPR rainfall product and rain gauge data, reducing the relative bias by an average of 30% and improving the correlation by an average of 20%. Compared with the conventional Bayesian (CB) fusion algorithm, which is based on overall error modeling, the HB fusion results can improve the root mean square error by an average of 24% and relative bias by 14%.