Abstract

Conventional Wald tests (Cameron and Trivedi, 2005, pp. 25–226) are conducted on our MNL results to assess some of our ater market hypotheses. For H1, we compared the significant variables associated with ater allocation trading in 1998–99 (as reported in Wheeler et al., 009)with the significant variables associatedwith allocation tradng in 2003–06. In order to be identified as significantly associated ith trading, two influences need to be identified: (a) one variable eeds to be significant in the Logit binary regression and (b) its ssociated coefficients in the buyers vs. non-traders (B vs. N) and he sellers vs. non-traders (S vs. N) regressions of the MNL model eed to have the same impact (which is tested by theWald test). If he coefficients are assessed as having the same impact, then it is a easure of willingness to trade, rather than ameasure of buying or elling behavior. Then, if the identified significant variables in our 003–06 model are vastly different from our previously examined 998–99 model, we may conclude the profile of water allocation raders has changed and the market has become more mature and ost farmers engage in trading.

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