Abstract
Nature Clim. Change 3, 631–637 (2013); published online 16 June 2013; corrected after print 5 July 2013. In the version of this Perspective originally published, the curves for 1984 and 1994 were incorrectly labelled in the legend for the right-hand panel of Fig. 3b. This error has been corrected inthe HTML and PDF versions.
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