Abstract
If permanent emigration actually is closer to 6.3% (12.9%–6.6%), as our data suggest it could be, then it biases the estimates of finite population growth rate, λ, downward considerably. The overall λ was estimated at 0.963 for 13 studies and 0.976 for the 8 monitoring areas for the Northwest Forest Plan (i.e., an annual decline of 3.7% overall). Point estimates of λ for the 13 studies indicated declining populations on 12 of the 13 study areas, and a conclusion of decline could be made for 8 of the subpopulations. It is therefore reasonable to ask, “What would the conclusions be if the point estimates were biased low by 3 to 4 percentage points?”
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