Erratic Rainfall and its Upshot on Rice Production in Kerala

Abstract

In recent years, rainfall irregularities have affected crop production in Kerala. Rice, a water-reliant crop, is the staple food of people in Kerala. It is challenging to revive paddy if the soil loses even 10 to 20 per cent of its moisture. Due to erratic rains and frequent dry spells, rain-dependent paddy cultivation is nearly impossible in Kerala. Among the three seasons of paddy cultivation in Kerala, the autumn season entirely depends on rainfall. According to 2020-21 Kerala agriculture statistics, the majority of the rice is cultivated under irrigated conditions in the state. This loss in rain-fed paddy cultivation was due to the decline in autumn rice cultivation after the mid-1990s. The study analysed the annual and seasonal rainfall variability and their relationships with autumn rice production in Kerala. The variability and concentration in the annual and seasonal rainfall were analysed using the coefficient of variation and the precipitation concentration index, respectively. The results revealed that the overall rainfall distribution pattern in Kerala was moderate to irregular. The seasonal index was estimated for the monthly rainfall data, and it was found that in June and July, the rainfall was the maximum. Production and productivity of autumn rice showed a high correlation with rains in June and July. The variability in rice production was positively influenced by rainfall and negatively influenced by the standard deviation of precipitation.