Abstract
Burglary in England and Wales fell by 67 % between 1993 and 2008/09. This study examines whether this fall was equitable across different population segments (with respect to their socio-economic characteristics) and area types. In particular, it estimates the extent of burglary falls and any changes in the victimisation divide across socio-economic (population) groups taking into account group composition. To this end, it compares their burglary incidence rates based on burglary count models of the 1994 and 2008/09 Crime Survey for England and Wales data. The results show that some socio-economic groups experienced inequitable burglary falls, and relative to others continue to experience burglaries at higher rates after the crime drop than before.
Highlights
Over the past 20 years sharp, and unexpected, falls in crime have occurred in many countries (Tseloni et al 2010; Dijk et al 2012)
How much did burglary levels fall for different socio-economic groups—and did the victimisation divide, or group-specific burglary rate in relation to others, fall or rise during the same period? To address these questions the estimated socio-economic group-specific burglary incidence falls, and any victimisation divide changes from 1993 to 2008/09 with respect to household composition, ethnicity, tenure, affluence, guardianship, and area type controlling for region, are examined relative to a base household in order to measure the extent of a victimisation divide
The burglary rate suffered by the base household is reflected in the intercept for the statistical models (Johnston 1986: 228–233), and serves as a benchmark for measuring equity and the victimisation divide within each year
Summary
Over the past 20 years sharp, and unexpected, falls in crime have occurred in many countries (Tseloni et al 2010; Dijk et al 2012). According to the latest figures at the time of writing, crimes measured by the Crime Survey for England and Wales (CSEW) fell by 62 % between 1995 and 2013/14—and are currently at their lowest levels since 1981 when victimisation rates were first recorded (Office of National Statistics 2014: 3). The extent of this decline in crime has varied both in relation to different offence types (Office for National Statistics 2014), and different socio-economic groups (Grove et al 2012). The prevalence of burglary per 1000 households is between four and eight times higher in the 10 % highest crime risk areas when compared to the 10 % safest areas of England and Wales (Kershaw and Tseloni 2005)
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