Abstract

Low- and middle-income country governments face the challenge of ensuring an equitable distribution of public resources, based on need rather than socioeconomic status, race or political affiliation. This study examines factors that may influence public service provision in developing countries by analysing the 2004-08 implementation of government-provided AIDS treatment in South Africa, the largest programme of its kind in the world. Despite assurances from the National Department of Health, some have raised concerns about whether the rollout was in fact conducted equitably. This study addresses these concerns. This is the first study to assemble high-quality national data on a broad set of census main place (CMP) characteristics that the public health, economic and political science literature have found influence public service provision. Multivariate logistic regression and duration (survival) analysis were used to identify characteristics associated with a more rapid public provision of anti-retroviral therapy (ART) in South Africa. Overall, no clear pattern emerges of the rollout systematically favouring better-off CMPs, and in general the magnitude of statistically significant associations is small. The centralization of the early phases of the rollout to maximize ART enrolment led to higher ART coverage rates in areas where district and regional hospitals were located. Ultimately, these results demonstrate that the provision of life-saving AIDS treatment was not disproportionately delayed in disadvantaged areas. The combination of a clear policy objective, limited bureaucratic discretion and monitoring by civil society ensured equitable access to AIDS treatment. This work highlights the potential for future public investment in South Africa and other developing countries to reduce health and economic disparities.

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