Abstract

In a standard dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with a complete asset market, home agents should hold a foreign equity biased portfolio to hedge the non-traded labor income risk, which contradicts home equity biased portfolios observed worldwide. As the labor income share increases, the degree of home bias should decrease because there is more incentive to hold foreign equity. In the data, there is not any evidence that the labor income share and the degree of home bias are negatively correlated. The standard model also predicts that the consumption differential-real exchange rate correlation is positive, while it is negative in the data. I show that a combination of market incompleteness, non-tradable goods, and labor supply can explain the three features above. My model can generate a large equity home bias, despite the strong positive correlation of non-traded human capital return with domestic equity return. The home bias is not sensitive to the labor income share. The consumption differential-real exchange rate unconditional correlation generated by my model simulation is zero.

Highlights

  • EHBi = 1 −Baxter and Jermann (1997) pointed out that since non-traded human capital return can be highly correlated with domestic equity return, the optimal portfolio should be foreign biased, which makes the puzzle “worse than you think.” A standard dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model predicts that home investors should hold mostly foreign equity

  • The percentage of home equity held in the home portfolio of stocks in the tradable sector generated by my model is 94%, despite a 64% labor income share in the GDP and the strongly positive unconditional correlation of human capital return and equity return

  • When the labor income shares increases, on one hand, home agents would like to hold more foreign equity of the tradable sector to hedge the positive correlation between domestic equity return and labor income generated by tradable sector relative technology shocks

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Summary

Introduction

Baxter and Jermann (1997) pointed out that since non-traded human capital return can be highly correlated with domestic equity return, the optimal portfolio should be foreign biased, which makes the puzzle “worse than you think.” A standard dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model predicts that home investors should hold mostly. Feng (2013) built a model that can generate home equity bias with the incomplete market, endogenous labor supply, and taste shock She solves for the optimal portfolio which depends on the covariance of labor income and tastes shocked with foreign equity excess return. The percentage of home equity held in the home portfolio of stocks in the tradable sector generated by my model is 94%, despite a 64% labor income share in the GDP and the strongly positive unconditional correlation of human capital return and equity return. The results with non-tradable sector productivity shocks are different to those found in previous literature, which usually find that nontradable technology shocks generate a perfect correlation between consumption differential and real exchange rate.

Solving for the optimal portfolio
Return to human capital
Benchmark calibration
Complete market
Complete market without the non-tradable sector
The optimal portfolio as a function of labor share
Incomplete market
The optimal portfolio as a function of the size of the tradable sector
The optimal portfolio as a function of the variance ratio
The optimal portfolio as a function of σ and ω
Tradable sector relative technology shock
Non-tradable sector relative technology shock
Simulation and consumption differentialReal exchange rate correlation
Findings
Conclusion
Full Text
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