Abstract
Despite broad agreement on the negative consequences of vaccine inequity, the distribution of COVID-19 vaccines is imbalanced. Access to vaccines in high-income countries (HICs) is far greater than in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). As a result, there continue to be high rates of COVID-19 infections and deaths in LMICs. In addition, recent mutant COVID-19 outbreaks may counteract advances in epidemic control and economic recovery in HICs. To explore the consequences of vaccine (in)equity in the face of evolving COVID-19 strains, we examine vaccine allocation strategies using a multistrain metapopulation model. Our results show that vaccine inequity provides only limited and short-term benefits to HICs. Sharper disparities in vaccine allocation between HICs and LMICs lead to earlier and larger outbreaks of new waves. Equitable vaccine allocation strategies, in contrast, substantially curb the spread of new strains. For HICs, making immediate and generous vaccine donations to LMICs is a practical pathway to protect everyone.
Highlights
Despite broad agreement on the negative consequences of vaccine inequity, the distribution of COVID-19 vaccines is imbalanced
In inequitable global vaccine allocation strategies, at least a portion χ of daily available vaccines are purchased by high-income countries (HICs), and the remaining vaccines are allocated to low- and middle-income countries (LMICs)
Knowing the impact of global COVID-19 vaccine allocation on both LMICs and HICs is crucial for controlling the COVID19 pandemic
Summary
Despite broad agreement on the negative consequences of vaccine inequity, the distribution of COVID-19 vaccines is imbalanced. The public health and economic costs of inequitable vaccine allocation will be borne by all countries in the end It has been shown in the context of influenza that cross-border vaccination subsidies could provide substantial indirect protection to countries donating vaccines[11,12]. Data-driven research on global vaccine coordination in real-world human mobility networks is rare, in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic with viral mutations. To address these challenges, we propose a multistrain metapopulation model to examine how the pandemic trajectory unfolds under different global vaccine allocation strategies. To model the emergence of new Nature Human Behaviour | www.nature.com/nathumbehav
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