Equilibrio presupuestario y la deuda pública en las crisis cambiarias recientes

Abstract

The first attempts to present the mechanisms leading to an Exchange crisis in the shape of models appeared during the 70s and 80s, in response to the crises in countries like Mexico and Argentina. In the face of the limited usefulness of all the models used up to now to explain most exchange crises happening during the 90s, other possible causes have been recently pointed out. The direct relation of the authorities facing an exchange crisis consists generally of tightening the macro economical policy, which is justified by the need to recover trust in the national currency and the restoration of the payment balance. The recommendations from the International Monetary Fund to countries affected by the crisis and forced to seek the aid of said institution generally follow this line. In this article we analyze in particular: 1) the role of the budgetary deficit as a factor that favors the arisal of the crisis; 2) the importance of the budgetary balance and of the relatively low level of public debt as condition that allow to stand against the crisis, once it happens; 3) the reversible impact of the exchange crisis in the budgetary balance and the level of public debt. Then the relationship characterized in the first chapter are studied on the basis of four contemporary monetary crises: in Mexico in 1994, in the Czech Republic and in 1997, in Brazil in the years 1998-1999 and the current crisis in Argentina