Abstract
Abstract We explore the dynamics of baroclinic instability in westward flows using an asymptotic weakly nonlinear model. The proposed theory is based on the multilayer quasigeostrophic framework, which is reduced to a system governed by a single nonlinear prognostic equation for the upper layer. The dynamics of deeper layers are represented by linear diagnostic relations. A major role in the statistical equilibration of baroclinic instability is played by the latent zonally elongated modes. These structures form spontaneously in baroclinically unstable systems and effectively suppress the amplification of primary unstable modes. Special attention is given to the effects of bottom friction, which is shown to control both linear and nonlinear properties of baroclinic instability. The reduced-dynamics model is validated by a series of numerical simulations.
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