Equatorial Pacific pCO2 Interannual Variability in CMIP6 Models

Abstract

AbstractThe El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the equatorial Pacific is the dominant mode of global air‐sea carbon dioxide (CO2) flux interannual variability (IAV). Air‐sea CO2 fluxes are driven by the difference between atmospheric and surface ocean pCO2, with variability of the latter driving flux variability. Previous studies found that models in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) failed to reproduce the observed ENSO‐related pattern of CO2 fluxes and had weak pCO2 IAV, which were explained by both weak upwelling IAV and weak mean vertical dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) gradients. We assess whether the latest generation of CMIP6 models can reproduce equatorial Pacific pCO2 IAV by validating models against observations‐based data products. We decompose pCO2 IAV into thermally and non‐thermally driven anomalies to examine the balance between these competing anomalies, which explain the total pCO2 IAV. The majority of CMIP6 models underestimate pCO2 IAV, while they overestimate sea surface temperature IAV. Insufficient compensation of non‐thermal pCO2 to thermal pCO2 IAV in models results in weak total pCO2 IAV. We compare the relative strengths of the vertical transport of temperature and DIC and evaluate their contributions to thermal and non‐thermal pCO2 anomalies. Model‐to‐observations‐based product comparisons reveal that modeled mean vertical DIC gradients are biased weak relative to their mean vertical temperature gradients, but upwelling acting on these gradients is insufficient to explain the relative magnitudes of thermal and non‐thermal pCO2 anomalies.