Abstract
Analysis of the long-term data made it possible to identify three periods of epizootic activity of the Central Caucasian high-mountain natural plague focus against the background of the overall downward trend. In the third period (2000-2010) the focus was shown to be under the intense negative influence of natural and anthropogenic factors that stipulated its depression. The natural factors were weather conditions unfavorable for life-sustaining activity of mountain ground-squirrels, the main plague carriers in this focus. Anthropogenic pressure over the focus manifested as follows. The quantity of cattle decreased, that resulted in decrease of territories of the mountain pasturelands, the natural habitats of mountain ground-squirrels. As areas suitable for life-sustaining activity of the mountain ground-squirrel populations reduced, the number of their settlements declined. With account taken for the effect of the anthropogenic influence stated above, short-term and medium-term prognoses of epizootic activity of Central Caucasian high-mountain natural plague focus indicate of rare non-intensive epizooties.
Highlights
Analysis of the long-term data made it possible to identify three periods of epizootic activity of the Central Caucasian highmountain natural plague focus against the background of the overall downward trend
In the third period (2000–2010) the focus was shown to be under the intense negative influence of natural and anthropogenic factors that stipulated its depression
With account taken for the effect of the anthropogenic influence stated above, short-term and medium-term prognoses of epizootic activity of Central Caucasian high-mountain natural plague focus indicate of rare non-intensive epizooties
Summary
Для анализа эпизоотической активности природного очага в разные периоды его функционирования создана база данных в системе Excel Microsoft Office 2000. А – поселения горного суслика с частыми эпизоотиями чумы; Б – с редкими эпизоотиями чумы; В – эпизоотий не выявлено мах чумного микроба за весь период наблюдения за очагом, с 1971 по 2010 год, взятые из официальных форм отчетности Кабардино-Балкарской противочумной станции. Для выяснения вопроса о площадях, числе и конфигурациях поселений горного суслика силами специально сформированных зоологических групп Кабардино-Балкарской противочумной станции и Ставропольского научно-исследовательского противочумного института в 2010 г. Были произведены работы по картографированию поселений горного суслика в Кубано-Малкинском ландшафтно-эпизоо тол огическом районе Центрально-Кавказского высокогорного природного очага чумы. Второй период обнаружил тенденцию к снижению эпизоотической активности природного очага, в связи с проведением крупномасштабных мероприятий по регулированию численности основных носителей и переносчиков чумы в рамках Программы
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