Epistemic Uncertainty Quantification of Floor Responses for a Nuclear Reactor Building

Abstract

After the 2011 Fukushima accident, engineers of nuclear power plants are looking beyond the basic design requirements and ensuring that countermeasures are built in to avert possible nuclear accidents. In seismic probabilistic risk assessment (SPRA), uncertainties can be classified in two ways as aleatory uncertainties or epistemic uncertainties. To improve the reliability of SPRA, the difference in seismic response due to difference of building modelings related to epistemic uncertainty was focused on. Two modeling methods were used for a seismic response analysis: a three-dimensional finite-element model and a conventional sway-rocking stick model. Simulated input ground motions related to aleatory uncertainty were generated for the input waves. Then, the seismic floor response results of the various input ground motions of the two modeling methods were quantified. For the uncertainty quantification related to the different building modelings, a statistical analysis of the floor response results of the nuclear reactor building were further performed. Finally, for the quantification of the uncertainty in the fragility analysis for SPRA, the way to use of these results were discussed.